By Fawzia Moodley:
Realpolitik demands that Washington and New Delhi find common ground amidst the fallout between the two allies over Donald Trump’s imposition of a 50% tariff on Indian exports to the US and indications are that the two countries may be on the way to some kind of rapprochement.
Signs of a possible thaw
India has been holding out hope that Trump, who had accused New Delhi of supporting Russia against Ukraine by purchasing oil from Russia, would reconsider the 50% tariff—the highest levy imposed on any country, except Brazil, which received the same treatment.
Until now, Trump had remained intransigent even as India’s exports to the US, its biggest market, took a hit. Two recent events – Trump’s call to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to wish him, a day ahead of his 75th birthday on Wednesday, 17 September; and talks between a US team led by trade negotiator, Brendan Lynch, and India’s Commerce Ministry the same day – are signs of a possible thaw in relations.
Trump’s political mind game
So what has changed? Is Trump once again playing mind games to force another country to do his bidding? After all, India, for all its innovation and resilience, needs the US, its biggest export market, to continue its outstanding growth trajectory. And Trump knows it. Or has reality dawned after Russia, China and India were seen chumming it up at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit? Is it the realisation that alienating India may drive New Delhi into the “enemy” camp, that’s driven Trump to speak of the “special relationship” between India and the US, declaring”there’s nothing to worry about. We just have moments on occasion”.
Trump, who is already suspicious of the BRICS Bloc of emerging economies, including India, Russia, China, Brazil and South Africa, which have been seeking to loosen their dependence on the US economy, surely sees a possible accord between Moscow, Beijing and New Delhi as a threat to US interests. Or perhaps Washington has grasped what Dr Jianli Yang, a Research Fellow at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, warned of — that by punishing India through tariffs, the US risks losing India’s support for its security and economic initiatives in the Indo-Pacific region.
A US’s central pillar
Unlike Russia and China, which have always been the US’s rivals, India, notwithstanding its stated goal of neutrality, has been, in Yang’s words, a “central pillar” of (the US’s) Indo-Pacific strategy—a fellow democracy, a vital counterweight to China, and a bridge to the Global South.” Perhaps, it dawned on the Trump administration that keeping New Delhi within its sphere of influence is in the strategic interest of the US, and would require some sort of compromise on the tariff issue.
India, of course, is keen to reach an understanding with Washington for its own economic and strategic reasons. The impasse with its most important export partner not only threatens its economic future but also has strategic ramifications, and New Delhi is doing its utmost to defuse tensions with the US by taking measures to reduce its dependence on Russian oil, increasing purchase of American crude oil and cutting imports from Iran and Venezuela.
Not yet an ally of Beijing
And, notwithstanding Modi’s cordial relations with Russia and moves towards detente with China, there are too many areas of conflict and disagreement for Beijing to be considered a natural ally of New Delhi. Taking into account the steps India has taken to address some of the US’s concerns, the reopening of talks is an opportunity for the Trump administration to look at ways to secure a deal that will lead to cooperation in areas of common interest such as energy security, to offset India’s dependence on Russia, whilst persuading New Delhi to address Washington’s concerns regarding India’s tariffs on US imports. – @NewsSA_Online
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